Given our view that non-financial, blue-chip equities are currently the most attractive asset subclass, we have increased our allocation to the WisdomTree Large Cap Dividend ETF (NYSE: DLN) to 20% of the SCM Tactical Portfolio. This is not a short-term trade; we consider this a major change in investment strategy with a time horizon of 1-5 years.
Our belief in the attractiveness of non-financial blue-chip equities is multifaceted. Firstly, we want to emphasize how cheaply many of America’s premier companies are currently priced relative to their historical averages. As we outlined in the July issue of the Sizemore Investment Letter, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Microsoft (among many others) are trading at P/E ratios not seen in multiple decades. According to financial theory, large and stable companies should trade at a premium to the broader market. By buying at higher prices, investors are generally willing to accept lower returns on blue chips in exchange for the perceived safety. But today, the opposite is true. Many blue chips actually trade at a discount to the S&P 500. The 2009 rally was primarily a rally in lower-quality “junk.” And while we do not necessarily forecast that the broader stock indices like the S&P 500 will see poor returns going forward, we do expect higher-quality stocks to outperform given current pricing. So on a valuation basis, a large overweighting in DLN makes sense.
